By Schweser Kaplan
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Example text
How can we understand this? It certainly does not result from any lack of evidence that money growth affects inflation. King provides a substantial amount of evidence from long runs of data to show that ‘countries with faster growth rates of money experience higher inflation’ (p. 163). This, he emphasises, is no mere correlation without causation; when the reasons for money growth are examined, it is clear that changes in the money supply without corresponding changes in demand for it do indeed cause inflation.
In my opinion, this belief is false. What is needed to complete the Keynesian system is an equation that determines the equilibrium price level. But the Phillips curve deals with the relation between a rate of change of prices or wages and the level of unemployment. It does not determine an equilibrium price level. 8 It is still widely 8 For example, Albert Rees, ‘The Phillips Curve as a Menu for Policy Choices’, Economica, August 1970, pp. 227–38, explicitly considers the objections to a stable Phillips curve outlined below, yet concludes that there remains a trade-off that should be exploited.
If we choose a low level of unemployment, we shall have to reconcile ourselves to a high rate of inflation. Reaction against the Keynesian system Three developments came along in this historical account to change attitudes and to raise some questions. One was the general theoretical reaction against the Keynesian system which brought out into the open the fallacy in the original Phillips curve approach of identifying nominal with real wages. The second development was the failure of the Phillips curve relation to hold for other bodies of data.