By Lionello F Punzo
This quantity gathers jointly key new contributions with reference to the connection, either empirical and theoretical, among fiscal oscillations, progress and structural swap. utilising a worldly point of mathematical modelling, the gathering comprises articles from, among others, William Baumol, Katsuhito Iwai and William Brock.
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Extra resources for Cycles, Growth and Structural Change: : Theories and Empirical Evidence
Sample text
Irregularity in business cycles seems to be a normal historical feature. Whether we focus on period, amplitude or patterns of co-movements we do not observe stable long run regularities that can be depicted as ‘stylised facts’. Explaining irregularity opens up a number of challenges in theoretical research on business cycles, within both the impulse and propagation perspectives to business cycles. The examples considered in this survey suggest that policy regimes, long-run sectoral structural change, changing international inter-relatedness have had important effects.
If we assume that the macroeconomic relationships of the period 1870–1909 are similar to those for the period 1909–1928 then we observe a significantly lower amplitude than in the original Kuznets series. However, it is unlikely that these quantitative relationships will remain stable over such long periods. Moreover, the existence of long swings in the American economy suggests that Romer’s revisions are unlikely to be correct because the period 1909–1928 is mainly capturing an upswing phase in the American economy; the behaviour of the 1930s, may be more relevant to depicting depression phases such as 1890s.
1980) Asset Accumulation and Economic Activity: Reflections On Contemporary Macroeconomic Theory, Chicago University Press, Chicago. Wigley, T. M. L. and Atkinson, T. C. (1977) ‘Dry Years in South-East England since 1698’, Nature, 265, (5593), pp. 431–34 Zahorchak, M. J. Zarnowitz, V. (1981) ‘Business Cycles and Growth’, Reprinted As Chapter 7 of V. Zarnowitz (1992) Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators and Forecasting, University of Chicago Press, Chicago and London. Zarnowitz, V. (1992) Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators and Forecasting, University of Chicago Press, Chicago and London.