Probabilistic Methods Applied to Electric Power Systems. by Samy G. Krishnasamy

By Samy G. Krishnasamy

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6, June, 1590-1597. S. J. Longo (1981). Economic incentives for larger transmission conductors, IEEE Trans. Vol. PAS-100, No. 9, September, 4291-4297. S. (1983). Line optimization study - a progress report, (program TLOP). PTI Newsletter, July. L. I. Orde (1981). Predicting the structural performance of transmission lines uprated by reconductoring. IEEE Trans. Vol. PAS-100, No. 5, May. G. (1985). Assessment of weather induced transmission line loads on a probabilistic basis. IEEE, 85 WM 234-0. G.

John's, Newfoundland, Canada ABSTRACT Reliability analyses of a t r a n s m i s s i o n tower having -four d e g r e e s of redundancy are carried out by evaluating b o u n d s on the p r o b a b i l i t i e s of f a i l u r e . The p r o b a b i l i s t i c finite element method, p r e s e n t e d h e r e , takes into account u n c e r t a i n ­ ties in loading, strength and structural p a r a m e t e r s and is based on a first-order second-moment a p p r o a c h . Statistical m o m e n t s of r e s p o n s e quantities are first determined in terms of statistical m o m e n t s of conductor l o a d i n g s due to i c e , wind parameters.

The purpose of this paper is to present a systematic procedure for computing the bounds on the probability of failure of a transmission tower taking into account the uncertainties in loadings, structural properties and strength p a r a m e t e r s . The objective is achieved by coupling the finite element method with the probability theory. Statistical moments of response quantities are first determined in assessing the upper and lower bounds on the probability of failure of a transmission tower.

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